How To Decide Lease Vs Buy
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1. What you’re actually paying for
Lease or buy is one of the most common and most mis-argued personal finance decisions. The loudest voices say “leasing is a rip-off” or “buying is a waste of capital.” Both statements are too simple. The actual answer depends on how long you’ll keep the vehicle, how many miles you drive, how much you value new features, your tax situation, and where the car sits on its depreciation curve. This guide compares total cost of ownership for both options, explains residual values, mileage caps, business-use deductions, and walks through the specific scenarios where leasing beats buying — and the many more where buying (especially used) wins.
2. Total cost of ownership over time
If a $45,000 car is worth $27,000 after 36 months, you’re financing $18,000 of depreciation plus interest over 36 months = ~$550/month. Buying the same car with a loan would be $750/month, but you keep an asset worth $27k at the end.
3. The depreciation curve
5-year comparison on a $40,000 sedan:
4. Residual value explained
Over 5-6 years, buying is typically $10k-20k cheaper. The gap widens the longer you keep the car.
5. Mileage caps
A new car loses ~20% of value in year 1, another ~15% in year 2, then ~10% per year through year 5. Years 1-3 are the most expensive years of ownership per mile.
6. The money factor
Buying 2-3 year-old used captures the post-depreciation value phase. This is why buying used is the mathematically dominant option for most households.
7. When leasing actually makes sense
The residual is the manufacturer’s guaranteed buyback price at lease end. High residuals = cheaper lease payments. Different models have very different residuals: Toyota and Honda hold value best, German luxury and most EVs depreciate fast. When comparing leases, look at residual as % of MSRP after 36 months — 55%+ is excellent, below 45% means steep lease payments.
8. When buying is obviously better
Standard leases allow 10,000, 12,000, or 15,000 miles per year. Excess mileage costs $0.15-0.30 per mile. A driver who logs 20,000 miles/year on a 12,000-mile lease faces $7,200-14,400 in overage over a 3-year lease. If you drive more than 15k/year, leasing is almost always wrong. Higher-mileage lease packages exist but price in the extra depreciation up front.
9. Buy used: the quiet win
Leases hide the interest rate as a “money factor.” To convert:
10. Lease-end options
Money factor of 0.00250 = roughly 6% APR. Always ask for the money factor and compare it to a typical auto loan rate. Dealers mark up the money factor for profit just like they mark up loan rates.
11. Gap insurance and wear-and-tear
A 3-year-old certified pre-owned (CPO) vehicle from a major brand:
12. The psychological trap
For most households, this is the financially optimal path. New-car leasing and new-car buying both lose to CPO on a 10-year cost basis.
13. Common mistakes
At lease end you can:
14. Run the numbers
In 2021-2023, used car values spiked and residuals set in 2020 were suddenly below market — lease buyouts became the best auto deals available. Always check market value against residual before returning the car.